Greensill Capital
Supply Chain Finance · Collapsed Mar 2021
Case Summary
Greensill Capital raised $1.75B to reinvent supply chain finance. Concentrated risk in a single insurer, questionable accounting practices, and regulatory investigations across multiple jurisdictions were externally visible for years before collapse.
Peak Signal Scores
Company Filings
10News & Events
9Sentiment
7Funding
6Workforce
5Market Position
4Signal Timeline
Senior VP of Risk departs. Not replaced for 6 months.
FT reports concerns about Greensill’s reliance on single insurer.
BaFin opens investigation into Greensill Bank subsidiary.
Third Big Four firm declines audit engagement. Only one willing to sign.
Credit Suisse freezes $10B of supply chain finance funds linked to Greensill.
Insurance coverage lapses. Tokio Marine refuses renewal.
Greensill files for insolvency.
What ERR Would Have Shown
By mid-2020, three of the Big Four accounting firms had declined Greensill as an audit client. That alone is a red flag with almost no false positive rate. Combined with BaFin’s investigation into the banking subsidiary and the FT’s reporting on single-insurer concentration risk, the signals were clear 12–24 months before collapse. An OP or lender monitoring these signals would have had time to reduce exposure, demand additional protections, or exit entirely.
Current Portfolio Matches
No current portfolio companies match this pattern.