ERR

Execution Failure Pattern Engine

Twelve historical cases of execution failure, analysed through the lens of externally observable signals. Each autopsy identifies which signals were detectable, how far in advance, and what action could have been taken. These patterns power ERR’s scoring model.

12

Cases Analysed

$10B+

Capital at Risk

12–18mo

Median Lead Time

Externally detectable signals present in all analysed cases.

Case Library

Workforce Collapse

Convoy

Freight / Logistics

$3.8B raised

$3.8B raised, 98% HC decline

Oct 202314 months
Workforce Collapse

Olive AI

Healthcare Automation

$852M raised

$852M raised, 75% HC decline

Oct 202312 months
Competitive Displacement

Fast

Fintech / Checkout

$124M raised

$124M raised, Stripe won market

Apr 20228 months
Regulatory/Compliance Failure

Greensill Capital

Supply Chain Finance

$1.75B raised

$1.75B raised, Big 4 audit refusal

Mar 202124 months
Funding Distress

WeWork

Real Estate / Co-working

$12.8B raised

$12.8B raised, IPO collapse

Sep 201912 months
Workforce Collapse

Britishvolt

EV Batteries / Manufacturing

£200M raised

£200M raised, 0 customers at 300 HC

Jan 202318 months
Funding Distress

Bulb Energy

Energy / Utilities

£250M+ raised

£250M+ raised, energy cap squeeze

Nov 202110 months
Funding Distress

Made.com

E-commerce / Furniture

£300M+ raised

£300M+ raised, demand cliff

Nov 202218 months
Workforce Collapse

P2i

Nano-coatings / Deep Tech

£100M+ raised

£100M+ raised, talent exodus

In distressOngoing
Regulatory/Compliance Failure

Theranos

Healthcare / Diagnostics

$700M raised

$700M raised, lab fraud

Sep 201836 months
Regulatory/Compliance Failure

FTX

Crypto Exchange

$1.8B raised

$1.8B raised, missing funds

Nov 20226 months
Regulatory/Compliance Failure

Wirecard

Payments / Fintech

€1.9B raised

€1.9B raised, fabricated revenue

Jun 202024 months

Cross-Case Pattern Synthesis

Pattern
Lead Time
Cases
Rapid headcount growth without revenue diversification
12–24 months
Convoy, WeWork, Olive AI, Britishvolt
Key executive departures in cluster
6–12 months
Greensill Capital, Britishvolt, Made.com, P2i
Auditor refusal or change under pressure
12–18 months
Greensill Capital, Wirecard, FTX
Glassdoor rating collapse (>1.0 point drop in 6mo)
6–12 months
Convoy, WeWork, Made.com, Olive AI
Hiring freeze with zero open roles
3–6 months
Convoy, Fast, Olive AI, Bloom Nutrition (portfolio)
Series of failed funding rounds
12–18 months
Made.com, Britishvolt, Bulb Energy
Regulatory investigation or whistleblower
6–24 months
Greensill Capital, Theranos, Wirecard, FTX
Competitive displacement (dominant player enters)
6–12 months
Fast
Revenue concentration loss (key client/market)
12–18 months
Greensill Capital, Bulb Energy
Director departures exceeding appointments 2:1
6–12 months
WeWork, Greensill Capital, P2i